‘Here comes the new boss, same as the old boss’.  Fans of The Who will recognize the lyric perhaps better than they do the name Dmitry Medvedev. 

Kremlin watchers will recognize the name better than the lyric, but they will also know that the new boss is the old boss, or at least the old boss’s man.

Two Term President Vladimir Putin, aka Mr Popular, handpicked Medvedev to be his successor knowing that whoever he put forward would be elected President. The Russians obliged him with a 70% vote for the new man.

Plan Putin is simple. Medvedev becomes President and announces that Putin becomes Prime Minister. Putin ensures that his new job becomes more powerful. Then he changes the Constitution which currently prevents anyone serving ‘Three consecutive terms as President’ and clarifies that they would be allowed to serve three terms as long as they are not consecutive. You can guess the next bit.

And who is the figurehead for all this? Dimitry Medvedev, the man he was with when they both served on St Petersburg city council, the man he propelled to become Chariman of Gazprom, the man who will become the respectable face of Russia.

There’ll be no vodka sessions ala Yeltsin, no posing semi naked, ala Putin, Medvedev is destined to become a manager, not a great leader.

What do we know about him? He likes Pink Floyd and Led Zeppelin, he practises Yoga, he’s married with one son, and at 42 he’s the youngest Russian leader since Nicholas the Second in the 1890's.

The more important stuff is that as Chairman of Gazprom he learnt the ways of global capitalism and the power of oil and gas as a foreign policy tool. Perhaps he was reflecting on this as the Russian national anthem was played during his swearing in ceremony.’A wide expanse for dreams and for life. The coming years open up to us’

He does not appear to have a strong ideology, he is the first leader for decades who wasn’t in the Communist Party and to date he’s shown no overtly nationalist sentiment.

And the bear reference? Well for once it’s not the just useful and ubiquitous cliché trotted out at these times, he really is a bear. The name Medvedev comes from the Russian word for bear. In fact drill a bit deeper into the etymology and we learn ‘med’ is the root word for honey, and ‘veda’ is ‘one who knows’, thus Medvedev knows where the honey is and he knows that Gazprom has got lots of it.

By Tim Marshall, Sky News foreign affairs editor

... but the people are.

The Burmese may be Buddhist, but they are also traditional, and tradition tells them that when their country has a bad leader, nature will intervene and send floods fire and storm.

The Burmese blogosphere, such as it is, is full of these tales in the aftermath of the cyclone and flooding which have devastated the country.

Behind this superstition about the 'anger of the gods' is another anger. The people have not forgotten last year's crackdown on the pro-democracy movement when monks were shot in the street.

Now they have more to be angry about. It seems that the ruling Junta failed to warn most people ahead of the disaster. Cyclone Nargis made its way across the Bay of Bengal for two days before reaching landfall.

It is further alleged that the authorities were then slow to react once the scale of the flooding became apparent. The parallel is being drawn between how swiftly the army was deployed against the people last year and how slowly they've deployed to help this year.

They'll be angry a long time. The worst-hit areas are in the Irrawaddy Delta which is the country's rice basket. With much of the land under salt water, the soil will be ruined.

Burma's rice output has dropped enormously over the years the Junta has been in power, but the country still produces a small surplus.

That now appears unlikely, in fact is it more likely that Burma will need massive food aid to get through the rest of the year.

Nor will it be able to sell its surplus to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as it usually does thus further impoverishing an already impoverished nation, and adding to Bangladesh's food shortages.

That's an awful lot of angry people to which the Junta must one day answer.

By Tim Marshall, Sky News foreign affairs editor

It's a faraway country about which I know little, and yet, Georgia's on my mind.

Russia’s President Putin is thinking about it as well in this last week before he pretends to hand over the reins of power.

A few years ago he woke the slumbering Russian bear and sharpened its claws. Since then, it’s growled at the USA, the UK, and Ukraine. In Georgia, it might actually scratch someone.

Tensions between Moscow and Tbilisi have been simmering ever since Georgian independence in 1993 but on April 21st they heated up.

A Mig29 fighter jet shot down a Georgian unmanned drone over the disputed Georgian region of Abkhazia. Tbilisi said it was a Russian jet. The Russians denied this, so the Georgians pointed out that whilst they don’t have Mig 29s, the Russians do. NATO’s chief, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, said if it wasn’t a Russian jet "I will eat my tie".

On April 25th the Russian Duma recognised the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent from Georgia. This was followed by Abkhazia expanding its military co-operation with Russia; Georgia responded by sending 1,500 soldiers to the de facto border with Abkhazia.

So far so tense, and so close to the 1,500 Russian troops on the other side of that border. They are about to re-inforced by Moscow.

It’ll all probably return to simmering point but the danger of conflict is there.  Georgia wants Abkhazia back even if it means having to fight for it. But as Russia grows stronger Georgia’s position grows weaker. The only way Georgia could front up the Russian bear was if it made this a NATO matter.  And then, this far away country really would matter.

‘No peace, no peace I find
Just that old, sweet song
Keeps Georgia on my mind’

He's also known as Hamid Karzai, President of Afghanistan, but given that his writ does not run much beyond the Afghan capital, the former title is often used.

This past weekend his writ didn't even run in the capital. He suffered a fourth assassination attempt, this time whilst attending an Independence Day ceremony. He survived with his life, but his reputation suffered another blow.

The Taliban attacked him whilst he was surrounded by thousands of security personnel.

The entire area had been sealed off before the military parade and yet the Taliban managed to hide in an adjacent derelict building despite being heavily armed with automatic rifles and a rocket launcher.

The terror attack is symbolic of Afghanistan's ancient problem, it's geography.  Just as Karzai's high podium was surrounded by flat land, so Afghanistan's Hindu Kush mountain range is surrounded by plains. Karzai failed to control the flat land and almost died.

The Hindu Kush, which rises to 20,000 feet is in the centre of Afghanistan. Instead of acting as a buffer to invasion by outsiders, it creates a barrier within the country. Hence those in the south, many of whom are ethnically Pashtun, often feel they have little in common with those in the North who might be ethnically Tajik or Uzbeki or Turkmeni.

To the West of the mountains are the Farsi speaking Shia Muslim Hazara, they have little in common with the Nuristani's who live in the high ground Northeast of Kabul.

No-one controls the Hindu Kush, perhaps they never will, but if you can get a grip on the plains around it, you can control the country.  The foreign troops will slog on for years, but if the Taliban get lucky, then who will lead Afghanistan?

The Talibs have just proved again, that the Americans, the British, Nato, the Afghan Army and the Mayor of Kabul are still not winning, not losing, but not winning.

Act 1. A famous London restaurant. Grubby reporters have their snouts pressed up against the window as inside the great and good of business and finance have a breakfast meeting; Enter stage left  their host - Jacob Zuma, ANC leader and probable next South African President.

Even through a glass darkly you could see that Mr Zuma can carry a room. Stanislavsky's quote 'there are no small parts, only small actors' doesn't apply here. Zuma is a big player and destined to become bigger.

Hence a bravura performance in London. He didn't leave to entirely glowing reviews, but he didn't need to.

I spoke to some of the movers and shakers as they filed out, leaving behind them enough half eaten plates of food to feed Bulawayo for a day. They were impressed. Zuma had distanced himself from President Mbeki's tacit support for Robert Mugabe's, he'd said the right things about inward investment,and he'd charmed them with his easy manner. Across a sea of bacon and eggs they'd looked him in the eye and decided he was a man they could do business with.

Act 2.  Enter the reporters. Jacob Zuma sits at the front of the dining room as seats are hastily arranged for the hacks.

And he then charmed us, which was charming. Mr Zuma has an easy smile, an infectious laugh and a way with words. The hostile black Zimbabwean reporter from VOA was called 'brother' despite a somewhat scornful call on Zuma to 'tell it like it is on Zimbabwe'. The sceptical white reporter from South Africa was called 'Sister' and before you knew it the whole family was getting on.

The ANC leader has clearly learnt his lines and he didn't bump into any of the furniture, which Laurence Olivier said was the mark of talent.

I pressed him several times on arms embargoes, on using weak language, on getting tougher; he smiled, danced around the questions and waited for the credits to roll.

Mr Zuma managed to  spend two days in London without saying very much, but at the same time giving out strong signals.

Here's my review. He's playing the long game.He knows President Mbeki is finished, he knows President Mugabe is finished, it's just a matter of time. So he's cleverly put himself between Mbeki's position of holding hands with Bob and seeing no evil hearing no evil, and David Milibands position of 'Bob's beating his people to death'

Thus, when he becomes the top man in Southern Africa he can say, 'I didn't support Mugabe, but nor did I take the British line.' Some critics believe his future role is as the bad guy, others say he will be the goodie, either way, he'll be the star.

Act 3.  Follows after the break.

e

and not oil - would the 1991 Gulf War have happened? And if Zimbabwe had oil would there be a foreign army in there by now?

I ask because I've been emailed by John of South Africa pretty much asking me the same question.

John watches Sky, CNN etc and says '...whenever problems in Africa are discussed, it is superficial and the news media and politicians dismiss it with disdain saying that it is an African problem and therefore Africa must find a solution.'

He goes on to argue that when it comes to the Middle East you get trampled in the rush of news media and politicians heading that way and asks '.. is this not a Middle East problem and therefore shouldn't the Middle East find a solution? If not, why not?...the news media should make themselves aware of the that the oil problems of today will pale into insignificance against the food problems of tomorrow..'.

I don't accept that the media says 'Africa problem/African solution' but on the differing levels of coverage my shorthand answer is, oil, gas, nuclear weapons, Islamism, Geo-politics, and colonial guilt.  What's yours?

  Fierce, farcical and almost funny. The behaviour of those doing Gods work in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre  frequently turns it into an unholy bastion of violence.

This week they're at it again, hitting each other with fists and palm leaves. As you do.

The Church is where Catholic and Orthodox Christians believe Jesus was buried. It's bang in the middle of the Christian quarter in the Old City of Jerusalem and has been since the year 326 of the Common Era.

The problem is that each of the several sects, which claim part ownership of the Church, believe they are the most important. Each controls a different section and 'God forbid', or as they must believe, God really does forbid, that anyone should put a foot on another's territory.

The latest fight came when an Armenian pushed an Greek Orthodox priest away from the area around the tomb of Jesus.

Apparently he felt his brother in Christ had spent too long there. This resulted in dozens of priests laying into each other. At least it helped to treat us to the sight of holy men beating each other with Palm leaves. This attempt at fulfilling the message of Monty Python's Life of Brian added to the gaiety of the world especially to those who are anti religion.

There could be more of this. For the Orthodox this Saturday is Holy Saturday, an event which attracts up to 20,000 visitors to the Church in one day. Woe betide that in the run up anyone from one group should place a ladder an inch inside another's patch in order to clean a window or a wall. That's fighting talk.

On the Saturday itself watch for the ceremony where the sun, shining through a narrow aperture lights a flame.

All well and good, but each of the sects' leaders thinks he should be the one who gets to carry it around.
At these moments spare a thought for the Ethiopian monks.  They only get the roof, which I suppose is as Holy as anywhere else , but given that they were driven up there by thugs in cowls, living up there must leave a bitter taste, albeit one with a better view of the Holy City.

3,000 Israeli police will be on duty to keep order. Meanwhile the Muslims around town look on with interest.

The God Delusion reference?  It's because not only will the Richard Dawkins fan club rub hands with glee at this display, but also because the monks are deluding themselves if they believe their behaviour is in line with the famous Biblical passage 'The Peace which surpasses all understanding'. Splitters!.

From the 44th floor of my hotel I can see two seas.  One, The Gulf (if you can count that as a sea), the other, a sea of cranes, construction, and partially completed buildings. Such is the pace of change that the latter almost appear taller in the morning than when you looked at them the night before.

Both of these seas lead directly to the outside world, to the computer age, to the age of air travel, to globalisation and international investment.

And from the top floor of any hotel in Gaza you can see almost nothing of the outside world. Sure, there is always the Mediterranean sea , but you can only go into it a few hundred metres and then the Israeli patrol boats will ensure you go no further. As for inward investment?  The only people investing in Gaza are the international aid agencies and those who would invest in violence for whatever ends.

And why do I link these two disparate places? Because they both look at to the sea, because they both have great beaches,both are Arab, each carries the tradition of hospitality and because they are at the same time so totally different because of their totally different stories over the last 60 years.

Readers and posters will have differing views on why the stories have been so different. There are straightforward economic reasons and there are of course the other reasons, I'll leave it you to make those points.

The point here is that I am struck visually by Dubai. Everywhere you look you look at what peace, planning and prosperity can bring. There are negative sides, for example the somewhat soulless glass and concrete districts, or the labour laws which are more akin to the 18th century than the 21st. Open the local papers and you see advertisements from companies seeking the whereabouts of workers who have 'absconded'. They are invariably from developing countries.

For example Mr Munipurage from Sri Lanka 'absconded from work...anyone with information is requested to contact the police'  But I digress, and this is a story Sky News has covered before in depth.

Coming back to Dubai/Gaza - I am reminded of the journeys we used to make to Serbia over the past 15 years. We'd land in a modern airport in Hungary, then, time permitting we would stay in a smart hotel in Budapest before driving through the increasingly prosperous city and on up to Serbia. 6 hours later we would arrive in a drab battered Belgrade, a monument to a country lost in the past, refusing to accept the new Europe and too often at war with its neighbours.

Hungary had chosen a different road, one which led into the EU. The contrast between the standard of living of people in the two capitals was stark.

As it is between Dubai and Gaza. This is an amazing city. It has an energy, a buzz, a sense of being somewhere where something is happening. The people here, 80% foreign, 20% local, are part of the extraordinary growth in the region. From an impoverished backwater on the Gulf a shining city has arisen. The standard of living of the local people has rocketed, health care is of a high standard, life expectancy has risen alongside education, all testimony to how things can be.

I asked around about future prospects and met a wave of optimism. 'But what if Europe has a recession and we stop coming here on holiday?' I asked. 'Ah', came the answer from the locals, the Brits, the Australians and Indians who work here. 'That is a 20th century question' they replied before going on to patiently explain that there is more to the world than Europe.

They know the Chinese will keep coming, as will the Russians. The South Asian work force will still make the trips to and from home, and the rich locals will still make their way everywhere. There is a cloud on the horizon, it is the slowly darkening cloud of US/Iranian relations, but no-ones sure if it will move in from the Gulf.

And so the cranes keep swinging and the buildings keep rising. Dubai is open for business. Gaza is closed. If the people had been given a choice, would it have been any different?

By Tim Marshall, Sky News foreign affairs editor

The quenchable Torch of Olympia has so far visited Athens, London, Paris, and now San Francisco. Next stop Buenos Aires, and we can be assured it will be stopped in at least one of 30-odd cities through which it  must still travel.

The opportunity to bring attention to a cause is too great to miss. We live in a technologically-connected world, and one in which single-issue politics and human rights groups have become very influential.

Perhaps the anti-China demonstrations will be muted in Pyongyang, North Korea, but we can expect the Australians to rustle up a few bells and whistles as the torch struggles to stay alight in Canberra.

New Delhi and maybe Buenos Aires are the two other best bets.

And how embarrassed are our Chinese friends at people shouting "Tibet!"  "Darfur!" and "Pollution!" at them across the world?

My guess is: very.

Sure, at one level the investment will continue to grow, the goods will continue to flow, and the incoming info will continue to be blocked.

But at another level, they absolutely hate having their shortcomings pointed out. After all, who doesn't? And in this interconnected world, even the Great Firewall of China won’t be able to prevent some news of the demonstrations leaking in.

Of course, protests about Olympics have been going on since even before the original Long March undertaken by Chairman Mao and his gang of 100,000 in 1934.

Think of 1908. The Americans refused to lower the Stars and Stripes to Edward VII. "This flag dips to no earthly King," they said.

Far more contentious was the 1936 Berlin Games. By then, Hitler had already set up Dachau concentration camp, murdered many rivals, and set in motion the anti-Jewish laws. And yet, almost everyone showed up at Germany’s biggest coming-out party since World War One.

The French team even paraded around the stadium giving the Nazi salute – an act the English football team repeated in 1938 – but I digress.

The Black Power salute was given at the '68 Mexico games, the Americans boycotted Moscow '80, along with 61 other countries. The Warsaw Pact returned the compliment for Los Angeles '84.

But that was mostly state against state. The new protests are by individuals coming together on single issues. The groups they form then come together with others: Darfur campaigners stand shoulder-to-shoulder with pro-Tibet supporters, ecologists and the odd fool who just likes throwing things at police officers.

The Long March to Beijing was predictable and was a future foretold. Surely, the original Tibet protests earlier this year were timed deliberately? They made global headlines ensuring that any Tibet related event surrounding the Olympic torch would do likewise.

The Long March still has a long way to go!

Ouch! There they were at Gordon's big set piece weekend conference, Australia's PM, Austria's Chancellor, Chile's President, et al. All on message, everyone agreeing with each other, something must be done, about all sorts of things.

And then there was South Africa's Thabo Mbeki with a left jab and a right hook.

First the jab. Entering the UK Conference he told everyone it really wasn't time for anyone to do anything about Zimbabwe. This put Gordon Brown off balance. His whisperers had spent the week whispering that Gordon was going to talk to Thabo and try to bring him round.

The jab we could have expected and was expressed in clear but polite terms. But the right hook!

Mr Brown is known here as 'The Great Clunking Fist'. He was floored by Mbeki.

The British PM took a question from a pesky journalist about immigration and responded that the UK has an immigration policy and wants people with good work skills to come here... and that was that... except without being asked Mr Mbeki turned to Mr Brown and said coldly: "Yes, but the problem is that you are taking skilled people out of my country and we don't like that."

As an after dinner joke this wouldn't go far, but for some reason Gordon burst out laughing. It was the sort of nervous laugh, accompanied by a fixed grin that you might emit if your own stand up comedy routine was dying a death and the tumble weed was blowing.

Of course behind the right hook is the ethical, political and economic debate about the skilled worker issue. 

Without the immigrant skilled workers the UK's Health Service and other sectors might collapse overnight. On the other hand, if the brightest and best pour out of South Africa and other countries how on earth are they supposed to further develop?

Mr Mbeki complained publicly, and in a manner we rarely see in the rarefied atmosphere of diplomatic press conferences.

But what can he do about it? Ban people from trying to better themselves? Or try to create the opportunities in his country so that the skilled want to stay?